IPL 2024 playoff scenarios – RCB and CSK set for knockout match

CSK and RCB are set to clash in Bengaluru on Saturday. BCCI

Rajasthan Royals defeat against Punjab Kings Wednesday means KKR takes first place in the championship stage of IPL 2024, while second place is still up for grabs. Here is an overview of the latest qualification possibilities.

Rajasthan Royals

Played: 13, points: 16, NRR: 0.273
Remaining match: KKR (h)

Four consecutive defeats mean the Royals could miss out on a top-two finish after dominating the points table for much of the season. They have now left the door ajar for SRH and CSK to overtake them in the points table. A win in their last match against KKR will at least ensure that CSK can't catch them on 18, but SRH could still overtake them and finish second if they win their remaining two matches, as they have a superior net run rate .

Royal Challengers Bangalore

Played: 13, points: 12, NRR: 0.387
Remaining match: CSK (h)

If SRH gets at least one more point – whether through a washout or a win – then RCB's only chance will be to finish ahead of CSK in the points table. This means beating them by at least 18 runs, if they score 200. If they are chasing 200, they will have to win in around 18.1 overs (depending on the runs scored on the winning shot). If their margin of victory is smaller, they can only qualify if SRH lose both their matches, regardless of the margin, and stay on 14. A loss or draw against CSK will knock RCB out of the tournament.

Super Kings of Chennai

Played: 13, points: 14, NRR: 0.528
Remaining match: RCB (a)

A win against RCB on Saturday will ensure CSK's qualification. If they lose by a margin of less than 18 points (after 200), then their NRR will remain higher than RCB's and they will still qualify regardless of other results. If CSK loses by a bigger margin, they will have to hope that SRH lose their remaining matches and finish behind on run rate, in which case both CSK and RCB will qualify.

CSK can also take second place in the points table if RR loses their last match and SRH does not win more than one match. Then, a win against RCB could push CSK into second position, given that their NRR is currently better than those of SRH and RR.

Sunrisers Hyderabad

Played: 12, points: 14, NRR: 0.406
Remaining matches: GT (m), PBKS (m)

Royals' loss of form in the league's final match gives SRH an excellent chance to take the coveted second position on the points table, especially as their final two matches are at home against teams from the bottom three . Even if RR wins its final game by 50 points after scoring 200, its NRR will only improve to 0.435; SRH can surpass this if they win their last two matches by a combined margin of 25 runs (assuming a score of 200 in each match). They only need one more point to ensure their qualification.

Delhi Capitals

Played: 14, points: 14, NRR: -0.377

DC ends their IPL 2024 with 14 points, but their net run rate of -0.377 means they have almost no chance of finishing in the top four. For them to make the playoffs, they will have to hope that CSK beat RCB and finish in 16th place, and that SRH lose their last two matches by large margins, so that their net run rate falls to below that of DC. Considering the difference in their net runs rate currently, this translates to a combined margin of defeat of 194 runs for SRH in their two matches (if they chase 201 each time). Barring a miracle, that means DC's season is over.

Lucknow Super Giants

Played: 13, points: 12, NRR: -0.787
Remaining match: MI (a)

LSG can still finish with 14 runs, but even if they score 200 in their last match against Mumbai Indians and beat them by 100 runs, their net run rate will only improve to -0.351. Long story short, like DC, LSG is also out of the race, barring several miraculous results.

S Rajesh is the Chief Statistics Editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

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