The much awaited Candidates Tournament is fast approaching, with all eight contenders fighting for the right to challenge the reigning world champion. Ding Liren for the title. But who will ultimately triumph? This is the general manager Magnus CarlsenThe verdict.
Four great masters have shared their verdicts according to the stats, but how does the former world champion rank the peloton?
Carlsen recently shared his views on the candidates during the latest episode of the Sjakksnakk (“chess chat”) podcast, that we talked about last weekbut in a new video from Chess.com, he spoke with our own CEO David Howell and went into more detail about each player.
Players are classified according to the following five categories: Likely to win, Best competitor, Will do the job well, Will hurtAnd In a bad moment.
Alireza Firouzja
Carlsen’s verdict: “I like what I saw from Alireza to Tata [Steel Chess] This year. He did pretty well [in the Chessable Masters 2024], reached the final against me, also forced a reset in the final. Honestly, he was the closest to beating me. Free Chess Also. I am a true believer of Alireza. But for now I’ll put him in the ‘Do Well’ category, which is reasonable considering the difficulties he had last time.”
Carlsen’s rank: Will do the job well
I am a true believer of Alireza.
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Carlsen’s verdict: “So Ian hasn’t shown much in recent years, with the exception of the Candidates. He shows flashes here and there. At the moment I’m not convinced, but I think he has enough pedigree to be in the Top Contender group given that he won twice in a row.
Howell: Do you think he’s saving the best for this specific tournament?
“I think he keeps the best, that’s for sure. He’s also had circumstances with him every time, which is fair enough.”
Howell: I’m a little surprised you put Ian in the second category?
“I just haven’t seen anything from Ian for a long time. He didn’t play very well at the world championship either. I’m not completely convinced yet. But he’s still in the group of top contenders. I’d say that the first two are “1A” and the other two are “1B”.
Carlsen’s rank: Best competitor
Ian hasn’t shown much in recent years, except for contestants.
Gukesh Dommaraju
Carlsen’s verdict: “For Gukesh, it’s very hard to say. I can’t imagine him winning, but I can see him being between +2 and -5. I think he will definitely win at least a few good matches, but he will suffer some pretty bad losses. too. I don’t think he’ll do badly, but I don’t think he’ll do very well either. I don’t think he fits into either category, but I think he’s not quite ready to take the plunge yet, and I think it’s probably more likely that he’ll have a bad event than a good one.”
Carlsen’s rank: Will hurt
It’s probably more likely to have a bad event than a good event.
Nijat Abassov
Carlsen’s verdict: “Abasov obviously had an incredible tournament at the World Cup. It’s very, very hard to believe he can repeat that. If he gets a good start he can limit the damage considerably, but overall , I think he will most likely suffer. You could see that with someone like Warmerdam [GM Max Warmerdam] at Tata, which started off extremely well, then usually once you start losing it’s hard to stop the bleeding if you’re a considerably weaker player than the others, which I think is unfortunately the Abasov case. It won’t be easy for him.”
Carlsen’s rank: In a bad moment
If he gets off to a good start he can limit the damage considerably, but overall I think he’ll probably suffer.
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
Carlsen’s verdict: “I don’t think Pragg is ready to win the tournament, but I don’t see it going really badly for him either. He has some weak moments, but he’s pretty stable psychologically, and he has a repertoire that’s “I’m improving and he’s very serious. I think it’s very unlikely that Pragg will win the tournament, but I don’t imagine him having a very bad result either.”
Carlsen’s rank: Will do the job well
I don’t think Pragg is ready to win the tournament, but I don’t see it going too badly for him either.
Fabiano Caruana
Carlsen’s verdict: “I think Fabi has a good chance of winning. His pedigree is very strong. He seems to have regained some strength in classical chess as well, after having a small setback. He may not be as good as in his era. best, which was probably 2018. He has as good a chance as any. He definitely belongs in “Likely to Win”.
Carlsen’s rank: Likely to win
I think Fabi has a great chance of winning.
Vidit Gujrathi
Carlsen’s verdict: “I think Vidit has improved a lot, especially from a psychological point of view. He did really poorly in Prague, which isn’t great, but that doesn’t mean much.
“I think Vidit falls between the levels of ‘Will Do Well’ and ‘Will Do Poorly’ here. I’m sure he will be very serious and well prepared. He won’t win the tournament, although I think he has the ability to score very well if things go his way. I really like the way he plays, but I could also see him losing a lot of matches. He’s also a bit between two categories, but I think he’s more likely to do -4 rather than +3.”
Carlsen’s rank: Will hurt
He won’t win the tournament, although I think he has the ability to score very well if things go his way.
Hikaru Nakamura
Carlsen’s verdict: “I think Hikaru has never had a better chance to become world champion. I would say he and Fabiano are co-favorites. Hikaru has been pretty consistent lately. He has excellent chances, so he belongs to the first category.”
Carlsen’s rank: Likely to win
I think Hikaru has never had a better chance to become world champion.
Here are Carlsen’s final rankings in one place:
What do you think of Carlsen’s verdicts and rankings, and who do you think will win the Candidates Tournament? Let us know in the comments!