T20 World Cup 2024 Scenarios – How can Pakistan, England, SL and New Zealand still qualify?

Pakistan beat Canada to stay alive, but will be eliminated if their match against Ireland is canceled or even if the United States gets just one point from their remaining matches.

Despite victory against Canada, Pakistan remains at the mercy of other results Getty Images

The first leg of the championship matches of the T20 World Cup 2024 caused a few upsets and a case of split points due to rain, which left one of the favorites in each group with plenty of work to do to qualify for the Super Eights. Here is an overview of the possibilities in each group.

What are the margins of results required for Pakistan to qualify?

Pakistan's convincing victory against Canada, with 15 balls remaining, has certainly increased its chances of qualification, although Pakistan remains at the mercy of other results. Their net success rate has now improved to 0.191, meaning they are almost certain to qualify if they beat Ireland and the USA lose their remaining two matches. Indeed, the required outcome margins are tiny: even if the United States loses its two remaining matches by a combined margin of ten points (with scores of 140 by the team batting first), a victory, whatever Either margin, will be enough for Pakistan as long as they score at least 112 batting first.

But the biggest worry for Pakistan will be the weather, with rain forecast all week at Lauderhill, where they face Ireland. If USA gets a single point or Pakistan loses a point due to a washout, Pakistan will be eliminated from the World Cup.

What must England do to qualify?

As in Group A, there is one team sitting comfortably in Group B, Australia, while England are in a similar position to Pakistan: they must win their last two matches and hope that Scotland lost its last match, against Australia on June 15. The task is a little more difficult for England, however, as they have a lot more ground to make up on the NRR: Scotland are at 2.164, largely thanks to their victory with 41 balls to play. against Omanwhile England are at -1.8.

If Scotland lose to Australia by 20 runs (say, after 161), England will need to win their final two matches, against Oman and Namibia, by a combined margin of at least 94 runs to get ahead of Scotland in terms of points rate. Just as importantly, England will be praying for clear weather that will give them the opportunity to accumulate points and margins of victory, as another washout will wipe them out.

Does Sri Lanka still have a realistic chance?

Sri Lanka's narrow defeat against Bangladesh hurt their chances of qualification CCI/Getty Images

Bangladesh's defeat against South Africa This is good news for Sri Lanka, but for it to benefit them, Sri Lanka will have to win their two remaining matches – against Nepal and Netherlands – and hope that Bangladesh lose at least one of their two matches remaining, also against the same teams.

If Sri Lanka scores 160 runs in each of their last two matches and wins by 20 runs, their NRR will increase to 0.074, which is barely lower than Bangladesh's current 0.075. If Bangladesh win one and lose one of their remaining two matches by similar margins, their rate will remain close to their current level. However, if the margin of victory is greater than the defeat, then Sri Lanka's task will become more difficult.

This group also includes the Netherlands, who currently have two points from two matches with an NRR of 0.024, with matches coming up against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. One more win could also put them in contention.

How much of a dent to New Zealand's chances was their defeat to Afghanistan

Not only New Zealand loses, but they also did so by a huge margin of 84 runs, meaning their NRR languishes at -4.2. Afghanistan, on the other hand, won their two matches by a combined margin of 209 points, which took their points rate to 5.225. West Indies and Afghanistan beat Uganda by over 120 runs.

New Zealand will have to do the same, but before that they will have to beat the West Indies on Wednesday in what is a virtual knockout match for them. If they lose, West Indies will qualify with six points and Afghanistan will be hot favorites to join them with a win against PNG the following day. If that happens, New Zealand's final two matches, against Uganda and PNG on Saturday and Monday, will be of no importance.

*This story was updated at 18:30 GMT on June 11 after Pakistan's victory over Canada.

S Rajesh is the Chief Statistics Editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

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